Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Nice Ride for the Market Recently, But …

So, the other day a bunch of us were hanging out at a nearby family establishment called Hooters, watching the games, drinking a few beers and sharing a few laughs. Some of us laughed harder than others, and we had good reason—the conversation had turned to our investments.

Our one friend Dave is a computer freak, understands everything inside and out about them, literally. He has a nice cushiony job, and like so many people with nice cushiony jobs in this country, they have a decent portion of their take-home money put into a 401K. Dave works very hard for this money, and no one would argue that he does not deserve every cent of it. He works hard, does his job well, and every now and then he goes out with the boys for beers and laughs—it’s just that sometimes those laughs disappear.

You see, I had asked Dave about the return on that hard-earned money of his, and he immediately stopped laughing. Over the last 5 years, his money has earned him a measly 4% return—and most of that was over the last few months. This is also after he started watching the markets and trying to actively improve his return. Now, if you factor in the amount of time he spent fussing with his plan, and converted that into hours he could have spent on a consulting job after work, that 4% shrinks even lower.

To make things even worse, poor Dave is a Mets fan. Well come on now, I root for the one and only New York team, the real New York team, a.k.a. the Yankees. Anyway, he informed us of a sure thing, a “lock”. By now, all of you already know how we feel about “locks”, but in case you’re new to this blog, check out some of my previous posts, and visit http://www.powerpositionbetting.com/ for more information about our betting philosophies and guidelines.

Back to Dave. His lock was the Mets against Philly, with Pedro on the mound. He was so sure of it he put a nice even grand on it, straight up. Sure, Pedro is the man, I have to give him that—and yes he ripped the Padres and can rip any team on any given day—but we just weren’t as sure about it as Dave was, and after all, who are we to doubt the faithful?

Anyway, sure enough, Murphy’s Law kicked in on Dave and Pedro got rocked, and I mean he got rocked. He didn’t make it past the first three outs of the game, got injured, and who knows when he will be back. Now, for all those other Mets fans out there, we feel for you because the World Series is coming up, possibly, and this really hurts. But that’s the game, one minute a lock, the next minute bombed.

Just like that, because of his “lock,” Dave quickly lost his hard-earned grand. Now, I also bet on the game, but in my case, I didn’t care about who won or lost; either way, the worst I could do was break even.

I’m sure there are at least a few of you who can relate to Dave and his story. The market has been good of late, but in the long run, how many can say they are completely happy with their return? Likewise, every day, we still see people betting on what they feel are locks, bets saturated with emotion, all causing them to lose all their hard-earned cash.

Listen, neither the 401K plan nor breaking the cardinal rules of gambling will lead you down a path to wealth. And if you can sympathize with Dave, visit our website before you make any more wagers, please. Then, when you’re done going through our guide, come back and read through my rants and ramblings. Feel free to comment or drop me a question anytime and I’ll see if I can help. For now, Stay Sharp, Play Smart.

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