Thursday, September 07, 2006

Football Season Opener Sports Gambling with the Super Bowl Champions

Football is here again my sports investing friends. We are less than 24 hours away from kickoff. I hope you're all excited because I know that I and everyone else at the Positioning Group is.

It should be a good matchup here with the Dolphins getting the first crack at the defending champions. But they won't be the same champions as last year though.

Big Ben won't be starting so the Steelers will have to rely on Charlie Batch to lead the team, but he will do so without too much prep time. Then the champions are also without The Bus and in this game he will end up being missed a lot.

For the Dolphins we have Daunte looking to continue a fine preseason and we will keep an eye out on how his knee handles the regular season punishment following his surgery. We are looking to Chris Chambers to form a dynamic duo with Daunte throughout the whole season.

Now, we know that it is early, I mean it can't get earlier than the first game, so it is hard to come up smelling roses on your picks for the first week. I like to wait till at least the first two weeks are played. This lets players get more into their season groove, and you can better see how they will play.

Three games is what I like to use as an early basis for some seasonal trend forming. But we can go with some historical trends for the first week if were inclined to. I want to have some fun this week, so I am inclined.

Over the last few years, the lines makers have gotten better, where it's been pretty much a 50-50 split between home and away teams on the lines. This is opposed to being close to 75% for the home team roughly 5 years ago. So in this case the Steelers are home, so the very slight edge would go toward the home team.

But if we look at the teams themselves, like we did above, I start to lean the advantage more to the visitors. If we look at points it's pretty much a pick here. But like I said I want to have some fun and start the season on a good start so I will do a something I usually do not and that is go against the trend, and the stats and go with the handicappers' hunch when looking at the team itself.

I'm going to start the Football Sports Investing season going with the Dolphins. Why? Because this should be a good old fashioned bone crushing game and because of this Bettis will be missed. On the other side the Steelers "D" shouldn't let Ronnie Brown run wild on them. So this will mean that it will come down to a game of field position and to which side has the better QB. Look for Daunte to put the Dolphins over the top for good in the last half of the 4th with a TD pass to either Chambers down the side to the back corner or McMichael on an inside slant.

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