The Injured Superstar Effect

Last night, I found out first hand a huge lesson in Sports Investing. This concerns something Pete and Jimmy have been telling me since I first joined up with the Positioning Group, but what can I say? I'm an idiot. What else is new, right?

Let me spell out the scenario for you. I'm all set to drop my usual bet of a hundred on Atlanta, getting even money at home against a Washington team I know is about to fall--they had been riding high and on a surge of momentum they could just not continue. Plus, their recent games against Atlanta had all been close, and they were in Atlanta where they historically have difficulty playing.

Sounds like a slam dunk to me, but then I get a message from one of my buddies. "Washington over Atlanta today, it's a lock." Now, I don't know about you, but when I get a message like that, just as I'm about to post a bet, well, I slow down a bit and take another look. I trust my friends, I keep an open mind, though (as Pete and Jimmy know all to well) I'm usually stubborn as a first class ass--but...I was just getting over a 0-2 night, so I admit I was a bit more open than usual.

I lost confidence in myself and in my plan, and I paid the consequences.

Turns out Joe Johnson wasn't playing that night. Woah, CollegeBoy, what kind of research are you doing here? About to post a bet and you don't even know that your team's star is hurt? Why else would you be getting even money?

I know, I know. I was looking at the numbers, and I figured I would have heard something about it the night before. But it was a recent development, and when I looked at the lines, I saw a home dog I liked who was getting great odds. Oh if it was only that, or if my buddy's message came a few seconds later so I could have complained to my friend about how huge of an idiot I was...

Joe Johnson out, Washington hot, hell yeah boy, let's not only bet on the Wizards...let's increase the wager by double. After all, it's a lock! Alarm bells were ringing in my ears like I had spent the whole day at a heavy metal show, but did I listen? Of course not. I'm CollegeBoy here, representing. First class idiot. I not only take the Wizards, I take the Bulls over the Miami Heat for double my usual wager as well--over a Heat team I had been praising. Check two of the last five posts before this one, all about how awesome the Heat are.

So what happens? What always happens to idiots making uninformed decisions. I get a big old kick in my ass, another punch to my gut, and then Shaq pisses on my body as I lay on the ground, crying for my mommy. Jesus was I pissed at myself last night after the games. How many times do I say stick to your plan? How many times do we say ignore "locks?" How many times do we say stay sharp, play smart?

What the hell was I doing? The Heat (recommended by Pete and Jimmy, both of whom laughed their asses off after I told them what I had done) won by 30 or so and the Wizards lost by 3. Oh it was a sad day friends to be sure.

You see, I fell for the old trap. These are traps I usually tend to avoid. Twice this year I bet on the Cavaliers when LeBron was out, and twice I won. Now, this isn't true of all superstars, nor is it true of all teams. At the least, however, I should have recognized that this was simply a game that should not be touched--and certainly not wagered on with double my usual bet. I took a huge hit in my account, huge. I'm not a high roller here, and there I went, acting like one.

One man does not make a team. In some situations he might (for example, with Kobe out, Pete and Jimmy recommended the under for the Bucks Lakers game, and it hit, of course, rub my face in it why don't they...), but not here. No Nash on the Suns is huge, and you def avoid the Suns in those situations, but not here. Not where I was betting.

I got sucked in by the media and everyone else predicting a huge game for the Wizards. 90% of the money was on the Wizards, so I know I wasn't alone here. And the Bulls? They had won 3 straight against Miami...but there was a slight problem there too. Before the season opener, they had lost eight straight there or something like that. Miami = trouble for the Bulls.

So I got sucked in by the missing Wade, sucked in by the missing Joe Johnson, sucked in by ESPN and my friends and my stupid gut and well...I paid the price. I hate paying the price, but hey, it's a lesson that not only I learned--again--but hopefully some of you out there can learn from my mistake. That's about all the good that came from those bets, folks...

Remember. One man does not make a team. And if a star goes down, hell, you don't have to bet on that game. It can change everything, it does change everything. Atlanta went from a -1 favorite to a +3 underdog in the span of a couple hours. Everyone and their mothers was calling each other to say bet Wizards tonight and the one thing I know, beyond a shadow of a doubt...

When someone who is not connected tells you about a lock, you either bet against that lock, or you don't bet at all. Me? I shouldn't have bet--and I certainly shouldn't have bet double. I went crazy, and when you go crazy...you lose.